GDP growth is projected to decline to 3% in 2018. Cereal production is projected to return to its historical average and non-agricultural GDP growth is expected to remain around 3% in the absence of more decisive structural reforms.
The fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 3.3% of GDP in 2018 in line with the government¡¯s commitment to bring down the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2019-2021 and to reduce public debt to 60% of GDP by 2021. To achieve this target, it would be appropriate for the government to ensure a comprehensive tax reform including measures to reduce tax exemptions, lower corporate tax rates, improve public investment management, and better enforce tax payments by the self-employed and liberal professions. In line with this fiscal consolidation and oil price projections, the current account deficit is projected to remain below 4.5% of GDP in 2018.
Unemployment remained on an upward trend, rising from 9.9% in 2016 to 10.2% in 2017, especially prevalent among the young and the educated, as well as women (26.5%, 17.9% and 14.7% respectively), reflecting the weak capacity of the economy to generate inclusive growth.
International poverty estimates for Morocco are expected to be available in June 2018. Results based on?the?national?poverty line indicate a sharp decline in poverty between 2001 and 2014. Poverty was at 15.3% in 2001 and declined to 8.9% in 2007 before dropping to 4.8% in 2014.??